مدلی مبتنی بر پویایی سیستم برای پایداری در صنعت بانکداری دیجیتال (مقاله علمی وزارت علوم)
درجه علمی: نشریه علمی (وزارت علوم)
آرشیو
چکیده
با توجه به سرعت بالای تحول دیجیتال در سال های اخیر، بررسی تأثیر آن بر کسب وکارها، به ویژه در صنعت بانکداری، از اهمیت زیادی برخوردار است. بانکداری دیجیتال نه تنها با بهره گیری از فناوری هایی مانند اینترنت اشیا، بلاک چین، هوش شناختی، هوش مصنوعی و یادگیری ماشینی عملکرد سازمانی را متحول کرده، بلکه نقش مهمی در تحقق اهداف پایداری ایفا می کند. پایداری بانکداری دیجیتال به معنای ایجاد تعادل میان نوآوری فناوری، رشد اقتصادی، مسئولیت اجتماعی و حفظ محیط زیست است. در این راستا، توجه به الزامات پایداری در بانکداری دیجیتال و توسعه مدل های مرتبط با آن می تواند به کاهش هزینه های عملیاتی شبکه بانکی، بهینه سازی مصرف انرژی، افزایش شمول مالی و ارائه خدمات کارآمدتر کمک کرده و زمینه ساز توسعه پایدار شود. این پژوهش با هدف تدوین استراتژی های پایداری در بانکداری دیجیتال انجام شده و از رویکردهای ترکیبی شامل روش دلفی فازی، مدل سازی تفسیری-ساختاری و پویایی سیستم ها بهره می برد. روش تحقیق مبتنی بر مرور نظام مند مبانی نظری است. پس از بررسی مقالات مرتبط و دریافت نظرات خبرگان، ۲۶ متغیر کلیدی مرتبط با پایداری بانکداری دیجیتال شناسایی و تأیید شد. هدف اصلی پژوهش، ارائه تصویری شفاف از پایداری بانکداری دیجیتال برای تصمیم سازان و مدیران، تحلیل روابط علّی-معلولی میان متغیرها و دستیابی به سناریوهای مختلف جهت توسعه پایدار در این حوزه است.A System Dynamics-Based Model for Sustainability in the Digital Banking Industry
With the expansion of digital technologies and fundamental changes in the financial services ecosystem, the banking industry is facing new challenges on the path toward sustainable development. In this regard, the present study aims to propose a model for achieving sustainability in digital banking within Iran’s private banking sector. To this end, key variables were initially identified through a review of the relevant literature and subsequently validated using the fuzzy Delphi method with input from subject matter experts. To analyze the relationships among the variables and determine their systemic structure, Interpretive Structural Modeling (ISM) was employed. Subsequently, a comprehensive digital banking sustainability model was developed and simulated using a system dynamics approach and related software tools. The results of the model analysis indicate that the development of technological infrastructure, enhancement of information security, improvement of customer experience, effective collaboration with regulatory bodies, and standardization of digital processes are key drivers in realizing sustainability in digital banking. Scenario analysis further reveals that simultaneous improvement of these components, by reinforcing positive feedback loops, can lead to sustainable growth and lasting competitive advantage for private banks. In this context, attention to sustainability requirements in digital banking and the development of related models can contribute to reducing operational costs in the banking network, optimizing energy consumption, increasing financial inclusion, and delivering more efficient services, thereby facilitating sustainable development. The primary contribution of this study is the development of an analytical and practical framework based on system dynamics modeling, which can support private banks in formulating strategies for sustainable digital transformation and serve as a roadmap for improving their economic, social, and environmental performance. The findings of this research can assist policymakers, banking executives, and researchers in the digital banking domain to better understand the factors influencing sustainability and to design effective interventions. Introduction As the banking industry experiences rapid digitalization driven by emerging technologies and evolving customer expectations, the necessity of aligning digital transformation with sustainability imperatives has become increasingly evident. This shift transcends traditional financial performance and calls for banking institutions to engage with social and environmental responsibilities while sustaining innovation. Particularly in developing economies such as Iran, the dual challenge of digital modernization and sustainable development presents a unique strategic frontier. In response to these dynamics, the present study proposes a comprehensive and dynamic model of sustainable digital banking, focusing on the private banking sector in Iran. Research Background While digitalization and sustainability have been widely studied, there exists a significant gap in integrated models that account for the systemic interactions between the two domains. The prevailing literature tends to analyze digital banking from a technological perspective, often overlooking its environmental and social consequences (Del Carmen, 2022; Migliorelli & Dessertine, 2023). Similarly, sustainability-focused frameworks rarely include the disruptive potential of digital technologies such as blockchain, artificial intelligence (AI), and mobile banking. Some studies have suggested the relevance of digital sustainability in areas like waste reduction, financial inclusion, and eco-efficiency (Castro et al., 2021; Di Vaio et al., 2021), yet empirical applications remain sparse. By building on these foundations, this research aims to bridge conceptual and practical gaps by designing a policy-oriented, simulation-based model grounded in a system thinking approach. Materials and Methods This study adopted a hybrid methodology by integrating three complementary techniques—Fuzzy Delphi, Interpretive Structural Modeling (ISM), and System Dynamics (SD). Initially, a structured literature review spanning 2016 to 2023 was conducted using scholarly databases such as Scopus and Google Scholar. This led to the identification of 26 preliminary variables, which were refined and validated through expert consensus using the Fuzzy Delphi method. Experts were selected based on their experience in digital transformation initiatives and their roles in IT, innovation, or strategic planning within private banks. The Delphi rounds applied fuzzy logic to quantify agreement levels, ensuring rigor in variable selection. To structure the relationships among the validated variables, ISM was employed. This method facilitated the construction of a hierarchical framework to determine which variables serve as inputs, intermediaries, and outputs in the sustainability process. The final phase involved constructing a system dynamics model with feedback loops and flow diagrams to simulate the behavior of key sustainability indicators over time and under different scenarios. The sustainability model incorporated variables reflecting organizational, technological, social, and environmental dimensions. These include elements such as process improvement, trust, profitability, service quality, digital culture, smart leadership, electronic KYC, stakeholder satisfaction, employee welfare, and business model adaptability. By embedding these interconnected elements into the system structure, the model is designed to capture the complexity of digital sustainability transitions in a banking context. Data Analysis and Findings The system dynamics model as shown in Figure (1) was simulated across multiple scenarios to understand how different policy strategies would influence long-term outcomes. The simulation process ensured that model behavior aligned with historical data and logical expectations. Scenario analysis provided valuable insights into how banks can prioritize investments and strategic decisions to balance economic growth with sustainability. For instance, increasing investment in digital infrastructure and employee training led to noticeable gains in trust, customer acquisition, and organizational resilience. Similarly, enhancing authentication systems and E-KYC protocols improved operational efficiency while supporting environmental and social performance through reduced paperwork and increased accessibility. Findings confirmed that sustainability in digital banking is best achieved through a synergistic approach that combines internal cultural transformation with technological innovation and regulatory collaboration. Variables such as digital culture, smart leadership, and business model flexibility played a central role in facilitating systemic resilience. The results emphasize that merely focusing on digital upgrades is insufficient without aligning human capital and governance frameworks with sustainability objectives. Scenario comparisons further revealed that a balanced investment strategy targeting both operational excellence and environmental awareness yields the most robust outcomes. Figure 1:SD model Conclusion The results of this research highlight the imperative for private banks in Iran and similar emerging markets to adopt integrated strategies that harmonize digital transformation with sustainability goals. This study makes a significant contribution by constructing and validating a system dynamics model that incorporates 26 interdependent variables derived from theory and practice, offering a holistic view of the sustainability landscape in digital banking. The model is unique in that it not only captures the technological enablers of sustainable banking but also embeds social and environmental dimensions, reflecting the true complexity of this transformation. The integration of Fuzzy Delphi and ISM methods with SD modeling allows for both structural clarity and dynamic simulation, enabling banks to test and adjust strategies before implementation. By embedding feedback loops and behavioral equations, the model delivers actionable insights into how various factors—such as trust, service quality, organizational agility, and stakeholder alignment—can collectively drive sustainability in the digital era. This comprehensive approach moves beyond linear planning, providing a real-time decision-making tool for managers, regulators, and researchers alike. Further Research Ideas Future research can extend the current model by integrating real-time behavioral data through machine learning algorithms or agent-based modeling, offering more granular and predictive insights. Comparative studies across multiple banking systems or geographic regions would also enhance generalizability. In addition, introducing ESG indicators and green finance parameters could further enrich the environmental scope of the model. Finally, longitudinal studies using historical banking data can help validate the dynamic behavior of the system across different economic cycles. Managerial Suggestions From a managerial perspective, several strategic recommendations emerge. First, banks should prioritize long-term investment in digital literacy and workforce development to foster a resilient culture aligned with sustainability values. Second, integrating advanced E-KYC and biometric verification tools can enhance customer trust and operational transparency. Third, collaborative governance involving fintechs, third parties, and regulatory bodies is essential for ecosystem resilience. Fourth, it is crucial to continuously monitor and update business models to reflect technological, societal, and environmental shifts. Finally, the adoption of sustainability-oriented performance metrics should be institutionalized to ensure that growth and digitalization are guided by ethical and ecological responsibility
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