بررسی تأثیر توسعه مالی و مدیریت توسعه بر رشد اقتصادی و کیفیت محیط زیست (مقاله علمی وزارت علوم)
درجه علمی: نشریه علمی (وزارت علوم)
آرشیو
چکیده
رشد اقتصادی یکی از مهم ترین اهداف و شاخص های کلیدی توسعه محسوب می شود. مدیریت توسعه نقشی اساسی در ایجاد شرایط لازم برای دستیابی به رشد اقتصادی پایدار و فراگیر ایفا می کند. مدیریت توسعه و توسعه مالی دو عامل کلیدی هستند که بر رشد اقتصادی و آلودگی های زیست محیطی یک کشور یا منطقه تأثیر می گذارند. سیاست های مناسب مدیریت توسعه و توسعه مالی می توانند به طور هم زمان رشد اقتصادی و بهبود کیفیت محیط زیست را فراهم آورد. توسعه مالی، به واسطه فراهم کردن منابع مالی موردنیاز برای تشکیل واحدهای تحقیق و توسعه مجهز تر و پیشرفته تر و همچنین امکان دسترسی به تکنولوژی های کارا تر و سازگارتر با محیط زیست که نیاز به منابع مالی بیشتر دارند، امکان جذب سرمایه گذاری مستقیم خارجیِ بیشتر، همراه آلودگی کمتر را فراهم می سازد و از این روش رسیدن به رشد اقتصادی را ایجاد می کند. هدف پژوهش حاضر بررسی تأثیر مدیریت توسعه و توسعه مالی بر رشد و توسعه اقتصادی و عملکرد محیط زیست در کشور ایران می باشد. به همین منظور با استفاده از داده های جمع آوری شده طی دوره زمانی 2002 تا 2022 و الگوی خود بازگشت با وقفه های توزیعی به برآورد و تخمین دو مدل رشد اقتصادی و مدل آلودگی های محیط زیستی پرداخته شده است. یافته های پژوهش حاکی از تأثیر مثبت توسعه مالی بر رشد اقتصادی و کاهش تخریب های محیط زیستی است. همچنین ضریب شاخص مدیریت توسعه در دو مدل رشد اقتصادی و مدل آلودگی محیط زیستی معنادار نشد که به دلیل فاصله داشتن استانداردهای محیط زیستی و فقدان نهادها و قوانین مناسب در این حوزه می باشد. سرانه مصرف انرژی و بیکاری در مدل رشد اقتصادی دارای ارتباط مثبت و معنادار شدند. متغیرهای بازبودن تجاری و تولید ناخالص داخلی نیز اثری مستقیم و همسو بر تخریب محیط زیست دارند.Investigating the Impact of Financial Development and Development Management on Economic Growth and Environmental Quality
Introduction Management of economic development and growth is a complex and multifaceted process that plans, implements and monitors measures to improve the living standards of people in a specific country or region. This requires a deep understanding of economic, social and political factors affecting development as well as the ability to formulate and implement effective policies. The key elements of economic development and growth management are: 1 setting goals: the first step in managing economic development and growth is to set clear and measurable goals. These goals should be aligned with the needs and desires of the people of the region and should be realistic considering the available resources and capacities.2 Formulation of strategy: after determining the goals, strategies must be formulated to achieve them. These strategies should include specific actions, timelines, and resources needed.3 Implementation of plans: after developing the strategy, plans must be implemented. This requires coordination and cooperation between different government departments, private sector and civil society.4 Monitoring and evaluation: The progress towards the goals should be monitored and evaluated regularly. This helps in identifying challenges and opportunities and making necessary adjustments in the programs. The financial sector and the variable of financial development play a central role in economic development and growth. And due to playing an intermediary role in allocating resources with all sectors of the economy, through reducing financing costs and encouraging savings and their effective use, it has a major contribution to long-term economic growth. The government in export countries By relying on oil income, the oil producer has the possibility of entering the financial markets and making various changes in it. The main goal of the policy makers of such changes is to stimulate economic growth. However, the studies conducted in this field show that financial development does not necessarily lead to economic growth. Patrick believes that the relationship of financial development and economic growth depends on the degree of development of each country. In the initial stages of development, the improvement of financial services and the expansion of new financial instruments and changes in the financial structure led to economic growth, and in the continuation of the process of economic development, financial developments follow the demand for it, and the demand for newer types of financial instruments and services is a determining factor. Statistical analysis of the relationship between financial development and economic growth has been done in different ways, including cross-country studies (using cross-sectional data). These studies can lead to false estimates. And on the other hand, there are a lot of restrictions in them. This research is carried out in two parts: the first part examines the main drivers of economic growth and the second part examines the relationship between carbon emissions and its determinants. In this regard, an important question that is raised here is the effect of development management and financial development on economic growth in Iran. Also, in this research, it has been tried to investigate the long-term effects of financial development and development management on environmental pollution (environmental quality). A better understanding of the relationship between financial development and management of development and the environment can help planners and policymakers in determining and approving environmental policies. Methodology According to the purpose of the present research, which is to investigate the impact of financial development and development management on economic growth and development and environmental performance in Iran. For this purpose, using the data collected during the period from 2002 to 2022 and the auto-regression model with distribution breaks (ARDL), two economic growth models and environmental contamination models have been estimated. So, the following two models are presented: Model 1: RGDP = f (GOV, FD, Energy, Une) Model 2: CO2P = f (GOV, FD, Open, GDP) The variables of the model (1) economic growth and (2) model of environmental pollution are defined as follows. GDP, gross domestic product is collected at the price of the base year 2017, which is in dollars. FD is an index of financial development that is used as the ratio of the number of facilities granted by banks to the private sector to the GDP. GOV, the index of development management, which is used in this research as the index of good governance, and is obtained from a total of six criteria. Une, indicating the unemployment rate as a percentage of the country's workforce who are unemployed. Energy is an indication of the consumption of energy resources in a specific time period (usually yearly). Open, the index of trade openness, which is the sum of imports and exports compared to the gross domestic product. Currency shows the real purchasing power of one country's money compared to another country's money. According to the logarithmic form of model (1), economic growth is rewritten as follows: Model 3: ln (GDP) t =β 0 +∑ p i=1 β 1 ln (Energy) t-i +∑ q1 i=1 β2(FD) t -i +∑ q2 i=1 β 3 (Gov) t-i +∑ q3 i=1 β 4 (UNe) t-i + ∑ q4 i=1 μ 0 (GDP) t-1 + μ 1 (Energy)t -1 + μ 2 (FD) t-1 + μ 3 (Gov) t-1 + μ 4 (UNe) t-1 + ε t Also, based on the logarithmic form of model (2), greenhouse gas emissions are rewritten as follows: Model 4: ln (CO2) t = ϒ 0 +∑ p i=1 ϒ 1 ln (Gov) t-i +∑ q1 i=1 ϒ2(FD) t -i +∑ q2 i=1 ϒ 3 (GDP) t-i +∑ q3 i=1 ϒ 4 (Open) t-i + μ 0 (CO2) t-1 + μ 1 (Gov)t -1 + μ 2 (FD) t-1 + μ 3 (GDP) t-1 + μ 4 (Open) t-1 + ε t The variables in this research are time series and cover the time period 2002-2022. The variables of gross domestic product, development management index, unemployment and economic openness index were extracted from the World Bank. The variable data of per capita energy consumption were extracted from the International Energy Center (IDE) and finally, the variable of financial development index was collected from the Central Bank of Iran. Findings The findings of the research indicate the positive impact of financial development on economic growth and reducing environmental damage. Also, the coefficient of the development management index was not significant in the two economic growth models and the environmental pollution model, which is due to the gap between environmental standards and the lack of appropriate institutions and laws in this field. Per capita energy consumption and unemployment in the economic growth model have a positive and significant relationship. The variables of trade openness and gross domestic product also have a positive and consistent effect on environmental degradation. Discussion and Conclusion Financial development leads to higher efficiency of financial markets and makes economic growth smoother by improving resource allocation. Financial development from different channels can have a positive effect on economic growth. A developed financial system can allocate financial resources more efficiently to productive investments and affect economic growth through increasing productivity. It can also be mentioned the effect of financial development in facilitating adaptation and the use of advanced technologies in the energy sector and subsequently reducing carbon dioxide emissions (due to the effect of increasing technological efficiency). Accordingly, despite the development in the financial field of a country, investment in technology increases the efficiency of the energy sector in that country. Therefore, the mentioned article proves and confirms the non-significance of the development management index with environmental pollution that we found in the present study. Finally, the results of the research showed that the opening of the commercial grade will lead to an increase in environmental pollution and destruction.
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