ارزیابی اثر تغییر اقلیم بر تضادهای آب و دیدگاه کارشناسان آب در مورد راهبردهای مدیریت آن در زیر حوضه های زاینده رود (مقاله علمی وزارت علوم)
درجه علمی: نشریه علمی (وزارت علوم)
آرشیو
چکیده
مناقشات مرتبط با آب در سطوح مختلف به دلیل عوامل انسانی و محیطی افزایش یافته است. از آنجایی که این تعارض ها به ندرت متأثر از یک عامل هستند، لازم است تضادها و تلاش های همزمان برای مدیریت آنها ارزیابی شود. این نیازمند آگاهی از روابط پیچیده و عوامل مؤثر بر آنها می باشد. این مقاله ارتباط بین تغییر اقلیم و مناقشات در زیرحوضه های زاینده رود را ارزیابی نموده و دیدگاه کارشناسان مرتبط با منابع آب را در مورد تأثیر تغییر اقلیم و راهبردهای مدیریت تضادهای آب ناشی از تغییر اقلیم در یک حوضه آبریز بررسی می کند. این پژوهش در دو مرحله تحلیل روند داده های ثانویه حاصل از ایستگاه های هواشناسی سینوپتیک در دو زیر حوضه و بررسی نظر کارشناسان انجام گردید. تحلیل روند داده های میانگین بارش باران و برف سالانه و شدت خشکسالی در سال های مختلف و تحلیل مضمون دیدگاه کارشناسان نشان دادند که نوسانات بارش و افزایش شدت خشکسالی ها در سال های اخیر در زیر حوضه های زاینده رود باعث کاهش منابع آب های سطحی و زیرزمینی شده و متعاقباً موجب کاهش دسترسی ذینفعان بر منابع و افزایش مناقشات بین کنشگران مختلف در زیرحوضه ها شده است. مهم ترین راهبردهای پیشنهادی به ترتیب اولویت عبارتند از: اصلاح الگوی کشت، تشکیل نظام مدیریتی جدید در کل حوضه، افزایش نظارت بر اجرای سیاست ها و راهبردها، تغییر نگرش ذی نفعان، ارجحیت تأمین منافع ذینفعان، و به کارگیری راهبردهای عملیاتی جدید.Assessing the Impact of Climate Change on Water Conflicts and the Perception of Water Specialists regarding Conflict Management Strategies in ZayandehRud sub-basins
Introduction The water crisis is a critical challenge, caused or intensified by various direct factors, particularly, limited resources, climate change, periodic droughts, hydrological conditions, environmental changes, population and consumption growth, the increased demand for water, and excessive use of resources that this will require management. However, water resource management has always had problems due to the uncertainty of weather conditions. Climate change has always been a big challenge for human livelihood, but climate change caused by human activities is a new dimension of these challenges. Evidence shows that climate change will hurt the livelihoods of millions of people around the world. Rural communities in developing countries are more exposed to climate change due to the high dependence of their livelihoods on climate change and their low capacity to adapt to changes. Climate change can create preparations for conflict between different stakeholders by reducing their access to water resources directly and indirectly. The evidence shows that the conflicts caused by the water crisis are increasing in vulnerable areas, including Iran. The ZayandehRud Basin, an important basin in the central plateau of Iran, has faced a crisis in water supply due to various factors. The water supply in the municipality, industry, and agriculture sectors has also faced challenges, causing the intensification of sub-basin conflicts over water supply within a basin between stakeholders. This research aims to assess climate change's impact on the intensification of conflicts caused by the water crisis and conflict management strategies in the upstream and downstream ZayandehRud sub-basins. Methodology Some areas in the sub-basins of ZayandehRud were assessed in this research. This basin is in the middle part of the central plateau where the ZayandehRud River is located. The ZayandehRud River is the main water supply of the region and on the way to the Gavkhoni wetland, it passes through many plains and lands. The Zayandeh Rud Basin has faced a crisis in water supply in recent years due to human and climatic factors. This crisis has reduced stakeholders’ access to water in the municipal, industry, and agriculture sectors, intensifying conflicts among multiple stakeholders in the basin. This research was conducted in two steps. In the first step, a trend analysis based on a time series of secondary data obtained from synoptic weather stations (Kohrang Township in Chaharmahal and Bakhtiari Province and Isfahan Township) to assess the average annual rainfall and the severity of drought in different years. In the second step, interviews with managers and experts related to water resources management about the occurrence of climate change in the conflict of water in the upstream and downstream sub-basins were evaluated. Findings The trends of rainfall variables and drought severity were analyzed in two synoptic stations located in the upstream sub-basins (Chaharmahal and Bakhtiari province) and the downstream (Isfahan province). The results showed that the average monthly rainfall in the two sub-basins of ZayandehRud fluctuated and did not have the same trend. The amount of precipitation in the Kohrang Station is decreasing and this station has a higher drought intensity than the Isfahan Station. according to the results obtained from the stations of the two cities, the number of snowy days has decreased significantly in Kohrang and Isfahan. These changes have been important in Kohrang city due to the source of water supply for the whole basin, and any change in the amount of precipitation (rain and snow) in this sub-basin will affect the water supply of the whole basin. On the other hand, by examining the views of the respondents, the indicators of environmental factors related to the conflicts caused by the water crisis were categorized as common concepts. According to the codes, experts pointed to environmental factors such as the decrease in rainfall, the decline in snow deposits under the upstream basin, and the increase in temperature and evaporation. Discussion and Conclusion The assessment of precipitation in two sub-basins showed that the precipitation variabilities and drought intensification have significantly increased the water crisis in the basin in the last few years. Water specialists have also emphasized climate changes, including the decrease in rainfall, reduction of snow deposits, and the increase in temperature as environmental factors affecting the intensity of tensions in the ZayandehRud basin. Finally, many strategies were proposed to manage the conflict in the sub-basins. However, the effectiveness of the strategies requires their appropriateness with the conditions and the nature of the conflict in the basin. Moreover, it is necessary to use several approaches to manage water conflicts that are not only for farmers or sub-basin experts but for all the basin’s stakeholders in water resources management. The stakeholders should also develop their ability to manage water use to maintain the quality and quantity of water consumed. Moreover, their awareness about water saving should be improved. Finally, people's attitudes and behaviors should be directed towards water-saving using different strategies. The most important proposed strategies, listed in order of priority, include: reforming cultivation patterns, creating a new management system for the entire basin, enhancing monitoring of policy and strategy implementation, reshaping stakeholders' attitudes, prioritizing the benefits of stakeholders, and adopting new operational strategies.
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